JMU Hoops>Columns>Diamond Dukes----->: CAA Tournament Prediction: Saturday

Just three days out from the CAA tournament, predictions are falling harder than the snow outside here in Virginia. On this afternoon, I'm going to take my own shot at predicting Saturday's quarterfinal action.

3:30 p.m. #4 George Mason (17-13, 10-8 CAA) vs #5 Drexel (13-17, 9-9 CAA)

Let's go back to this time last year. Drexel (the CAA regular season champions) made their way to the tournament final in Richmond against hometown favorite, VCU. While the Coliseum was packed with Rowdy Rams, the DAC Pack was not underrepresented by any means. The two fought it out in a brutal CAA style game and the Shaka Smart's squad came out on top, 59-56. Many however thought that Drexel deserved an at large bid. People took to Twitter with hash tag's #twobidleague and others stating reasons for their acceptance to the dance. Well, they got snubbed and I remember myself being pretty miffed that they were left on the outside looking in. The Dragons made it to the quarterfinals of the NIT before UMASS got them, 72-70.

This year the Bruiser Flint's team caught the same type of injury bug that was floating around Harrisonburg last season. Early on, the team lost standout guard, Chris Fouch for the season with a fractured ankle. Flint's other two guards, Damion Lee (battled neck injury) and Frantz Massenat were able to produce for the Dragons, but compiled with other injuries, the team just could not compete at times.

George Mason began their 2012-2013 campaign on a high note with a win on the road at UVA. Later in non-conference play the Patriots knocked off a striving Richmond team on a buzzer beater inside the Richmond Coliseum as a part of the Governor's Holiday Hoops Classic. The team really never stood out in any manner this year to me. Their biggest win to me was against JMU in Fairfax. Paul Hewitt's squad outscored the Dukes 40-24 in the second half for a comeback victory. Their worse loss had to be when they came up short on the road in Wilmington against UNCW, 82-74.

They've been led junior guards, Sherrod Wright and Bryon Allen. Wright has been at the top of the CAA scoring charts at 16.5/game. Inside Jonathan Arledge, Erik Copes, and even freshman Marko Gujanicic have pulled their own weight very well. Mason went into last Saturday needing a win on the road at Delaware or just a JMU road loss (which has been easy to come by this season) to lock in the three seed in Richmond.. The Patriots played well for about 30 minutes in Newark before Delaware got their act together and overpowered GMU for the victory. Besides going into the tournament playing a team they swept in the regular season (W&M), they'll have to face a tough Drexel team. This I think will be the best game of Saturday and it definitely will be the most hard fought game on the schedule. The war down low for rebounds, I think will even get the eyes of some Richmond legends, maybe Robert E. Lee over on Monument Ave.

After consideration, I think GMU's overall talent will be too much for Drexel to handle. Mason's post presence will be the difference in this game and I expect freshmen Gujanicic and Patrick Holloway to step up in key spots for Mason and send them to Sunday.

January 31- Drexel 58 @ George Mason 54
February 14- George Mason 68 @ Drexel 62

Prediction
FINAL: George Mason 65 vs Drexel 56

Bruiser Flint gonna be like

"DAYYUUUMMM"

Paul Hewitt gonna be like

"I need YOU to fill these stands tomorrow afternoon"

6:00 p.m. #2 Delaware (18-13, 13-5 CAA) vs #7 Hofstra (7-24, 4-14 CAA)

The Pride started out this season in the news and not in a good way. Four players- Kentrell Washington, Jimmy Hall, Dallas Anglin, and Shaquille Stokes were suspended on multiple counts of burglary.

In all honesty Hofstra's season has been really bad. They lost eight straight non-conference games early. The team then dropped 10 of 11 conference games in the course of a month. I won't go into their worst loss, but one sizable win did come when they took down UNCW on the road, 65-56. The team will lose guard Stevie Mejia (11.9 points/game) to graduation, but sophomore Taran Buie looks to be promising.

I will dish out a 'Great Performance' award to Mo Cassara's squad as they almost took down Delaware on senior night. Granted, the Blue Hens shot just 30% from the field that night. The Pride rank in the bottom 15 teams in Division I (347 teams) in three big categories: points, rebounds, and field goal percentage. 332, 333, and 338 respectively ranks wise. The team averages just 38% from the field each game and under ten assists.

Delaware enters Richmond on a bit of a high note. The team fought back on senior night without forward Josh Brinkley to beat George Mason, 82-77.

The team has had an above average season with multiple highs and some lows. Them, like Hofstra struggled with some non-conference opponents losing five straight, though one was #2 nationally ranked Duke...in Cameron. Before the losing streak, they did beat UVA in Charlottesville. Maybe Monte Ross could call up Coach K and tell him what it feels like to win in Cville, eh?

They've been led by senior Jamelle Haigins averaging a double-double (11.6 points/game, 10.5 reb/game) and junior Devon Sadler with 20 points/game. It's scary to think that Sadler still has a year left too, he will be a tremendous threat for player fo the year next season.

Biggest win- @ Northeastern in overtime, 76-74
Worst loss- Delaware State- 73-67 (OT)

I do not think Delaware will come out with horrendous shooting as they did in Hempstead. Look for Josh Brinkley to bounce back from a minor injury. Him and Jarvis Threatt, both from RVA will definitely have family and friends on hands. Sadler will produce as usual and Hofstra's Buie/Mejia combo will not be enough to stir up an upset.

January 9- Hofstra 54 @ Delaware 69
February 27- Delaware 57 @ Hofstra 56

Prediction
FINAL: Delaware 68 vs Hofstra 50

Mo gonna be like

"I'm wicked mad right now!"

Monte Ross gonna be like

"You better not be making that kind of call tomorrow afternoon"

8:30 #3 James Madison (17-14, 11-7 CAA) vs #6 William & Mary (13-16, 7-11 CAA)
**Main Event** well at least for this blog.

JMU has really begun to define themselves as the cardiac kids. The Dukes were down double digits on the road at Delaware and were able to come back and win on a buzzer beater alley-oop. Three days later, the Brady bunch were down on the road to Northeastern and if they were given .05 more seconds they would have forced overtime and could've escaped Boston with a victory. Andre Nations game tying layup could not beat the clock.

So we move to this past Saturday, it's 6 p.m., GMU has lost to Delaware on the road and all the Dukes need to to is beat the Tribe to steal the three seed from the Patriots. The Dukes went into halftime down 16. Well it wasn't pretty, but yet again JMU fought back and eventually took down Tony Shaver's group on senior night, 69-67 securing the three seed and a rematch exactly one week later.

JMU's season has been filled with ups and downs. After starting out 1-5, they dominated the month of December setting them up for success in CAA play. They enter Richmond as the three seed without redshirt senior Andrey Semenov, by far the teams best shooter. He's been out since January 2 when he injured his ankle. This however, is downplayed as A.J. Davis is absolutely on fire for JMU...and it comes at just the right time. Go back to December 1 when Davis was suspended for all of 48 hours due to attitude issues...basically his relationship with Brady. This up and down relationship has come to Davis coming off the bench for Brady and absolutely tearing up opponents over the past few weeks. The guard has finished in double figure in the last five games (20+ in last three).

Biggest win-@ Delaware
Worst loss-@ Hampton-self explanatory

William & Mary enters Richmond where they usually are...middle of the pack. The season has gone along as fairly uneventful, but really improved as the season wound down winning three straight CAA games.

Shaver raves about how the team is set up to contend next season. He says his incoming recruiting class coupled with only losing one real senior starter, Matt Rum will lead his squad to future success. One can't doubt him when he has sophomore Marcus Thornton for two more seasons. He is shooting the lights out of gyms up and down the CAA. Thornton dropped 41 combined points in two meetings with the Dukes. Him and Davis have turned JMU/W&M games into NBA type matchups between the two guards.

Biggest Win- vs Towson
Worst loss- @ Hofstra

If JMU can keep Thornton under wraps especially in the second half by sticking Devon Moore on him as they have done in both meetings they may make it to their first Sunday semi's since 2001. Brady alluded to this Monday, bur I think Davis will start for JMU to prevent a slow start. And if he can contribute the way he has done so recently, the Dukes will be in good shape. Moore knows this is his last rodeo in Richmond and he will be playing for more than just the team. I expect it to be competitive through the first half, but eventually the Dukes will pull away late and test those Richmond Marriott beds out for another night.

Plus, way back in 1994, the Tuesday/Wednesday before the tournament it snowed upwards of 20 inches in the valley. JMU won the tournament and went dancing (the last time either scenario occured). 2013, on the Tuesday/Wednesday before the tournament, it snowed upwards of 20 inches. Omens my friend.

Prediction
FINAL: James Madison 70 vs William & Mary 60

Tony gonna be like