2:00 p.m. #1 Northeastern (19-11, 14-4 CAA) vs George Mason (Eliminated Drexel Sat.)
Northeastern is the only team in this years tournament that received a bye, so a brief recap of the Huskies season.
Under command of Bill Cohen (front runner for Coach of the Year), the Huskies had their best season in the CAA since they entered in 2005. The regular season champs entered conference play at a mere 5-7. They then began to catch fire starting conference play with eight straight wins before January 30. This is when Ron Hunter's Panthers came in and shook up all the CAA as they took down NU, 78-73. It didn't hurt the team much, as they rattled off four more consecutive W's following the loss.
As Mason is to JMU, ODU was to NU this season. The Huskies took their impecable record into Norfolk in early February and barely escaped with an overtime victory, 79-74. Newly named head coach Jim Corrigan did an outstanding job with this team after long time head coach Blaine Taylor was let go. Northeastern ended their season on a low note as Corrigan and company spoiled senior day in Boston dominating the Huskies, 81-74. The Monarchs led by 17 at halftime, but a second half NU comeback made it interesting late.
The interesting thing to me with Northeastern is that the school, located in Boston is furthest north school in the conference and they usually fall out of the media's eye during the season. With the majority of CAA teams falling in VA/Mid-atlantic area, a school in Boston is not in the media as much. They were not on tv very often so their success to many came as a surprise.
NU has been lead by their trio of stellar guards: seniors Jonathan Lee & Joel Smith, and sophomore Quincy Ford. Lee was preseason first team All CAA and Ford was named to the second team. Forward Reggie Spencer also contributed down low and on the boards. The high scoring Huskies lead the CAA at 70 points/game.
Smith-16.5 points/game
Lee- 13.8
Smith- 12.9
Worst loss- ODU on senior day 81-74
Biggest win- W&M 2OT 95-91 (yes, it's W&M, but I think it takes a good team to come out on top of a 2OT game)
While the CAA never has gotten the media attention they fully deserve, it has been even less this year as the conference is definitely on the low end of the success cycle. A guaranteed one automatic bid league this season, the CAA tourney winner is projected to be the #16 seed in the NCAA. In every projected bracket I've seen, people (who their only job is to do this all year) have NU coming out of the CAA. So while this is in my opinion the most wide open tournament in years, NU will definitely enter as the favorite to cut down the nets on Monday night.
While NU comes into this game fully rested, George Mason will enter with a projected victory already under their belt. And as usual this has its pros and cons. For NU they come in somewhat cold not having played in eight days, while Mason comes in already warmed up.
The teams first met this season on January 3 in Fairfax. On that night, the Huskies began their eight game conference winning streak with an 84-74 victory. They shot 52.8% from the field and scored 54 second half points. NU shot 56% from deep on 9-16 shooting while the Patriots connected on 7-20, 35%.
January 27, an odd Sunday night matchup, GMU traveled to Boston and struggled to make shots from the field. Paul Hewitt's team shot 20-59 (33%) while Coen's team shot over 50% again. The Huskies did not have much trouble with this one winning by 20, 71-51. Ford/Smith both netted 15 points a piece.
Although Northeastern comes in cold, I think they will take care of GMU in the end. The trio of Ford/Smith/Lee will be too much for Mason's backcourt of Sherrod Wright and Bryon Allen to handle. The Patriots will score the majority of their points in the paint and I give them an advantage in that category. You'll see Northeastern again on Monday night.
Prediction
FINAL: #1 Northeastern 72 vs #4 George Mason 64
Paul Hewitt gonna be like
"Where's Jarrett Jack when I need him!?"
Bill Coen gonna be like
"Excuse me, did I hear you say we'd lose?"
4:30 p.m. #3 James Madison (eliminated W&M) vs #2 Delaware (eliminated Hofstra)
Since 2009, teams are 11-0 in the third meeting with an opponent after winning the first two contests. JMU will have, by my predictions already upped this to 12-0 Saturday with a victory over W&M. The Dukes were 2-0 vs the Blue Hens in the regular season and will be putting these statistics to the test Sunday evening.
Delaware had the easiest matchup of Saturday against #7 Hofstra. Barring any shenanigans, Hofstra will already be back in Hempstead wondering why their 'robbery' skills couldn't be of use in Richmond against DU with an upset.
On the other hand, you have Matt Brady and the Dukes. He said Monday that teams should be afraid of a matcup with the Dukes in Richmond mainly because of their athleticism. At this point last year his team had already been eliminated in the first round by UNCW and he was waiting to see if he'd even have a job. Fast forward to this year, and Brady has brought a fair amount of success back to the program. A 17-14 regular season doesn't look stellar on paper, but given some context (Semenov's injury & others) he's put together a nice season in Harrisonburg. This marks the first time JMU has made it to semi-final Sunday since 2001. In those 11 seasons since, the Dukes have been eliminated in the first round six times. So it can be said they are not very consistent in a tournament style format, but I do think and have said many times this year, that they can win this years tournament.
The first meeting between DU/JMU came on January 23 in Harrisonburg. The Blue Hens shot an abysmal 29% from the floor, 13-45. JMU didn't do much better at 33%, but Rayshawn Goins put in a 'nice' double-double with 15 points and 13 rebounds. A.J. Davis contributed 16 points off the bench too. Delaware's senior big man, Jamelle Haggins in last years game in Harrisonburg went for 23 points and 18 rebounds. This year, four points and four rebounds. Delaware's poor shooting combined with a quiet Haggins allowed JMU to walk away with a 64-50 victory.
Now, it's February 17, a Sunday night in Newark. The Dukes are coming off of a solid 75-70 victory over Towson. The team is entering their biggest four day stretch all season. At Delaware and then at Northeastern on Wednesday. It's go time for JMU. They start out the game 0-7 from the field and are down double digits within mere minutes. What's new, right? Road JMU sucks. They've only won twice on the road and the wins were against a terrible ODU squad and a semi-respectable UNCW. Something is different though about tonights double digit road deficit. Besides launching shots, the Dukes are patient and calm and slowly work their way back in. This method worked to perfection as the Dukes took a 38-36 lead into the break.
The second half started with was more of the same...poor shooting from JMU. They get down double digits agains, but yet again this newly found resiliency and 'fight' brings them back into the game. With six tenths of a second left, down one, 71-70 Devon Moore lobs an inbounds pass up under the basket to Andre Nation (who was scoreless to this points) who slams home the game winner. It was the most clutch play JMU has made this season. Brady proved they could win away from the Convo. Yes, they escaped with their third road win of the season, but no one cares how you win as long as you do. Moore and Goins finished with 19 each and Davis netted 16. The "Big Three" as I like to call them combined for 54 of the Dukes' 72 points.
This all leads to their third meeting in Richmond. I firmly believe this could be the tournaments most competitive and fun game to watch. Both teams match up really well with one another and both are looking to make it back to the big dance. For Delaware, their last trip was 1999, where they lost to Tennessee in the first round. 1994 was JMU's last trip. The Dukes lost to Florida, 64-62 in Uniondale, NY. Common ground between the teams-they want revenge on SEC teams.
Delaware's big men Haggins and RVA native Josh Brinkley will be ready to rock the post and this could cause some trouble for JMU because of their size issues. Goins has not pleased Brady with his defense very much this season, but if there was a game for him to shine, look no further. I think Brady won't bother trying to match with sizer, rather he'll use his teams quickness and agility to counteract Delaware's post presence. It's worked for the Dukes as of late and as they say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."
Defense and rebounding will be the factor in this one. JMU will probably lose the rebounding fight, but if they can prevent Delaware from getting too many offensive boards, they should be ok to that extent. The Dukes defense needs to step up. Nation/Curry/Cooke even as freshmen can cause some of their own 'havoc' on teams. Nation is ruthless when it comes to steals and outlet passes to Moore that result in highlight reel caliber 'oops' to cousin A.J. Davis could spark an extra cylinder the Dukes need. While the crowd is expected to be very thin (VCU gone, ODU not allowed in), JMU might have a slight advantage if people turn out. Pre-game festivities are hopeful bring out alumni, who are very dense in the Richmond/Tri-cities area and student offers (first 100 students free to every session JMU is in, $5.50 after that) COULD factor in as well. The pep band will be in attendance thus simulating a makeshift Convo atmosphere that JMU has strived in this season (10-4). Call me crazy, but small things like this do make a difference. Every time the team or Brady was asked about their struggles on the road, no one could muster up an answer. The Coliseum is neutral court. The Dukes have played well on neutral court this season.
Defense and rebounding will be the factor in this one. JMU will probably lose the rebounding fight, but if they can prevent Delaware from getting too many offensive boards, they should be ok to that extent. The Dukes defense needs to step up. Nation/Curry/Cooke even as freshmen can cause some of their own 'havoc' on teams. Nation is ruthless when it comes to steals and outlet passes to Moore that result in highlight reel caliber 'oops' to cousin A.J. Davis could spark an extra cylinder the Dukes need. While the crowd is expected to be very thin (VCU gone, ODU not allowed in), JMU might have a slight advantage if people turn out. Pre-game festivities are hopeful bring out alumni, who are very dense in the Richmond/Tri-cities area and student offers (first 100 students free to every session JMU is in, $5.50 after that) COULD factor in as well. The pep band will be in attendance thus simulating a makeshift Convo atmosphere that JMU has strived in this season (10-4). Call me crazy, but small things like this do make a difference. Every time the team or Brady was asked about their struggles on the road, no one could muster up an answer. The Coliseum is neutral court. The Dukes have played well on neutral court this season.
Devon Saddler will be an obvious scoring threat to JMU, but if Moore can play lockdown D on him, it should keep him from getting too out of control. I anticipate this game to be very close for roughly 35 minutes, but some clutch shots, especially from deep by the Dukes will send them into Monday night. It's bold, but I'm sticking with it. We will see who will "start wearing purple" Monday night.
Prediction
FINAL #3 James Madison 68 vs #2 Delaware 62
Monte Ross gonna be like
"You're telling me JMU is playing in the CAA championship final!?"
Matt Brady gonna be like
"Dear baby Jesus, we're going to Monday!!!!"
Monday's Championship game prediction/analysis coming tomorrow>
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